MANILA, Philippines – At least 14 out of 66 Senate candidates have a “statistical chance” of winning a seat in the 2025 polls, according to the latest preference survey released by pollster Pulse Asia. The January 2025 poll would be the last released by the firm before the campaign period for national posts officially begins on Tuesday, February 11.
The survey, conducted from January 18 to 25, shows ACT-CIS Representative and former social welfare chief Erwin Tulfo alone at the top of the list, with over 62.8% voter preference. The next two highest-ranked senatorial candidates, re-electionist Senator Bong Go and Senate comeback aspirant Tito Sotto, had 50.4% and 50.2% preference ratings, respectively. According to Pulse Asia, Go ranked 2-3, while Sotto ranked 2-4.
Rounding out the top 6 are Erwin’s older brother Ben Tulfo, and re-electionists Pia Cayetano and Bong Revilla with preference ratings of 46.1% and 46% respectively. Ben Tulfo ranks between 3-8 in the race, while both Cayetano and Revilla ranked 4-8.
But it’s the bottom 8 on a list of 14 where things get even tighter — with only a percentage point or less separating the bottom eight candidates from highest to lowest ranked:
- re-electionist Senator Imee Marcos (43.3%, ranked 4-12)
- former senator Ping Lacson (42.4%, ranked 4-12)
- TV show host Willie Revillame (41.9%, ranked 7-13)
- re-electionist Ronald dela Rosa (41.2%, ranked 7-14)
- Makati Mayor Abby Binay (41.1%, ranked 7-14)
- former senator Manny Pacquiao (40.6%, ranked 7-14)
- House Deputy Speaker Camille Villar (38.4%, ranked 9-14)
- re-electionist Lito Lapid (37.3%, ranked 10-14)
Of the 14 with a statistical chance of winning as of January 2025, 10 are part of the administration’s “Alyansa Para sa Bagong PIlipinas” — a slate President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. himself is endorsing.
Electoral preference polls are a snapshot of a specific timeframe in the Philippines, and measures who would win in specific races if the election was held on the day the survey was undertaken.
Key current events that preceded the survey include the last-minute signing of the 2025 budget, the filing of impeachment complaints against Vice President Sara Duterte, the Iglesia Ni Cristo’s national peace rally, a House megapanel recommendation for former president Rodrigo Duterte to face crimes against humanity charges over the war on drugs, and Marcos’ decision to remove both Dutertes from the National Security Council, among others.
Gainers, losers from last poll
Senator Marcos, the older sister of the President, was the biggest gainer in the January 2025 poll, going up 5.8-percentage points from the same Pulse Asia survey held in November 2024. The uptick in her January 2025 preference rating made her shoot up to 4-12 from the 10-14 rank she held in November last year. She has been one of the biggest spenders on political ads, both in traditional media and new media.
Top-ranked Go, Sotto, and Ben Tulfo saw their numbers drop from November 2024 to January 2025, even as they retained their ranks. It was Pacquiao who saw both his percentage points and rank slip — from 5-9 in November 2024 to 7-14 in January 2025.
Dela Rosa, who led former president Rodrigo Duterte’s drug war, saw his preference go up by 4.3- percentage points placing him at 7-14 from the 10-15 rank he held in November 2024.
The same four candidates — former senators Kiko Pangilinan, Bam Aquino, and Gringo Honasan, as well as former interior chief Benhur Abalos — ranked just outside Pulse Asia’s list of probable 2025 Senate winners.
According to the survey, only 50% of voters said they are inclined to complete their senatorial slates. Of the registered voters polled in the survey, only 3% said they were undecided about who they would vote for senator, 2.5% said they did not have preferences, while 1.7% declined to say who they intend to vote for.
The face-to-face survey was based on a sample of 2,400 adults aged 18 and above and has a 2+/- margin error, and 95% confidence level. – Rappler.com
