MANILA, Philippines – The next 90 days for national candidates and the latter 45 days for local bets will be a whirlwind of information and narratives that will get entangled with Vice President Sara Duterte’s impeachment.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has said he did try to dissuade his allies from impeaching Duterte. Even before the “Uniteam” coalition crumbled, he insisted that she did not “deserve” to be impeached.
And then after Duterte’s angry announcement of her apparent assassination plot against the President (that she now insists were not threats), Marcos again asked legislative allies to drop the impeachment plan because, he said, it was a “storm in a tea cup” that would only derail Congress from more pressing matters, and would not do the country any good.
There’s also national security, especially in light of recent breakthroughs by Philippine intelligence and law enforcement agencies on suspected Chinese spies. Security officials want Philippine laws to be updated or introduced to protect the country for espionage and foreign malign influence.
It’s a push that’ll require political capital from both the executive and its allies in the legislature.
Yet, more than 200 House representatives proceeded to impeach Duterte before Congress went on recess last week. Which begs the question: when a campaign is about to kick off and domestic politics is in turmoil, who stands to benefit?
The storm, the tea cup
According to Rappler sources, Marcos seemed resolute in this anti-impeachment stance up until the very end. Which would explain why he seemed exasperated when reporters pressed him about his role in it.
Among the many key quotes from that press conference? “Wala nga akong pakialam ‘don (Like I said, that is none of my business). It’s already in the House. Congressman mag-de-decide kung ano gagawin niya dahil pananagutan ng House of Representatives ‘yan (Congressmen will decide on what to do because that is the role of the House of Representatives),” said the President, when asked why he did not think to intervene in the House push to impeach Duterte.
What is less clear is if the key personalities who are influential with the President felt the same way.
When senators and senatorial candidates think about what to do next, timelines will factor in the electoral politics of 2025. For most candidates, drawing clear lines — on whether they are Team Marcos or Team Duterte — won’t be to their advantage.
Trust and approval ratings for both Marcos and Duterte are statistically tied, heading into the midway point of the President’s term. About half of the country trust and approve of their performances.
The backdrop of an impeachment will also add more spice to Marcos’ new role as chief chief campaigner of the Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas (Alliance for a New Philippines), the ruling coalition’s 12 bets for the Senate.
The President is set to join at least 21 of the slate’s sorties around the country. He wants, and needs, a big win for his slate — a mix of Senate returnees, dynastic names, and former members of the executive.
As Marcos crosses the halfway mark, it will become even more important for him to keep both staunch allies and fence-sitters in Congress in check, especially as he faces more challenges on the economic front and the world gets even more unpredictable in the last three years of his term.
It’s also in Marcos’ interest to keep domestic politics in check — or at least be able to project control — as the Philippines tries to maximize its defense and commercial ties with the outside world.
Plot twist
That the Marcos-Duterte coalition has crumbled is not a surprise. These things happen when alliances are forged from convenience rather than shared values. That it crumbled in this manner, and just days before candidates, including his Alyansa bets, try to woo both the solid Marcos and solid Duterte electorate, is a plot twist that befuddles even veterans in Philippine politics.
For the loose “anyone-but-Duterte” coalition, the discussion was not even about whether Duterte “deserved” impeachment, but about timelines and which causes it would further.
Months back, talks swirled that impeachment was imminent. House legislators were supposedly already working on gathering signatures while in the Senate, rules were already being drafted, according to sources. But time passed and, to many, it was running out.
An impeachment trial that would begin several months before the 2025 elections was the ideal to some. It would have made lines easier to draw (especially in the Senate) and narratives better fleshed out long before campaigning officially started. It would have helped frame the election not merely as a Marcos vs. Duterte proxy match, but a choice between accepting or rejecting the Duterte brand — which Rodrigo Duterte started and his daughter Sara continues to exemplify.
Instead, what we have is this: the impeachment casting a large shadow over the 2025 polls.
For district representatives in Duterte-leaning districts who signed the impeachment and have credible challengers, it means going back home to a local electorate incensed over their vote. Candidates who are allies of the Vice President can also flip the script and cast themselves not merely as loyalists but as among those who can help “defend” Duterte from the ruling coalition.
To be clear, there’s little chance that the House won’t be dominated by Marcos allies after the elections. The lower chamber will always ally itself with Malacañang, only to flip to whoever is the likely winner in the next presidential elections.
The Senate and its “24 Republics” are a different matter. They have a mandate that stems from a national constituency, egos to serve, and interests that overlap, intersect, and can even clash with Marcos’ own.
Sixteen votes in the Senate are needed to convict Duterte.
Does she have enough political savvy and might to either convince sitting senators to vote in her favor or push allied candidates into the winning circle in 2025? Will administration allies dominate the senatorial race?
And when the “anyone-but-Duterte” coalition navigates the 2025 polls and the coming years after that, what values will it be anchored on? – Rappler.com