MANILA, Philippines – On the first day of the 2025 midterm elections in his home province of Ilocos Norte, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. came out with guns blazing as he blasted the opponents of his senatorial slate for their alleged sins to the nation — among them, clapping for China and supposedly showing glee it used water cannons against the Philippine Coast Guard, bullied Filipino fishermen, and took “islands” that belong to the Philippines.
He made the same tirade on February 13 during the slate’s proclamation rally in Iloilo, where he lost to his closest rival former vice president Leni Robredo in the 2022 presidential race: “Wala sa kanila ang nagsisipsip po sa Tsina (None of them kowtowed to China).”
Marcos did it again in Carmen, Davao del Norte, the bailiwick of former president Rodrigo Duterte, whose presidency enjoyed cozy ties with Beijing.
“Tayo ngayon ay humaharap sa ating – tinitingnan po natin kung saan ang tutunguhan ng Pilipinas. Iyan po ang halaga nitong eleksyon po na ito. Mahalaga ang eleksyon na ito dahil sa eleksyon na ito, sa pagboboto ninyo, mamimili po kayo kung tayo ba ay babalik – kung tayo ba ay babalik sa panahon na gusto ng ating mga liderato ay ang Pilipinas magiging probinsya na ng China?”
(We now decide where the Philippines is headed. That’s why this election is important. Through your vote, you make a choice — do we return to a time when our leaders wanted to make the Philippines a province of China.)
It’s the most provocative that Marcos has been in a public speech since eyeing and winning the presidency. Even Alyansa campaign manager Toby Tiangco, a close ally and cousin-in-law of the President, said he was surprised by Marcos’ stump speech.
It’s the fruition of what some in the security and defense sectors were hoping would happen: for the West Philippine Sea, and for China’s actions in the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone (EEZ), to be an issue in the May elections.
China’s foreign affairs spokesperson Guo Jiakun bristled at Marcos’ campaign rhetoric, saying a day after the February 11 proclamation rally in Ilocos Norte that it “opposes exploiting the South China Sea issue for political manipulation.”
Present vs past
The West Philippine Sea — and whether a candidate is for or against China — is, of course, part of a bigger message.
Marcos wants to frame the 2025 midterm elections not as a referendum on his administration but a referendum on the Duterte administration and the Duterte legacy, which his erstwhile ally, the impeached Vice President Sara Duterte, stands for and benefits from.
Rappler columnist John Nery, during panel discussion on the 2025 kickoff, echoed this sentiment. Framing the elections through the lens of corruption, being pro-China, and drug war kills, he mused, could be a strategy of Marcos and his team “to finally defeat the Dutertes.”
On the flipside, former president Duterte wants to frame the polls as a check on Marcos by softly lambasting (or as softly as the former Davao mayor can manage) Marcos and his administration for their failure to address food princes, job creation, and criminality (Duterte’s pet issue).
But are China and the West Philippine Sea the most pressing issues for Filipino voters?
It’s not, according to the last Pulse Asia Ulat ng Bayan survey. As usual, economic issues — inflation, job creation, poverty reduction, and increasing workers’ pay are by far the most important national issues Filipinos think the government should address.
But it’s still close to the heart of many Filipinos.
According to a November 2024 survey by OCTA Research, 84% of Filipinos support the national government’s defense of the Philippines’ sovereign rights in the West Philippine Sea. Support for government efforts in defending the Philippines’ EEZ was highest in Metro Manila and Balance Luzon, and among Classes D and E. The survey also claimed that 91% of respondents considered themselves familiar with the West Philippine Sea issue.
An earlier survey from the same firm, held in March 2024, showed that 91% of adult Filipinos “distrust” China. The survey was held in the aftermath of China leaving four Filipinos hurt after it blasted strong water cannons during a resupply mission to Ayungin or Second Thomas Shoal.
Marcos vs Duterte showdown
Whether we like it or not, the 2025 polls look like it’ll be shaped by the two clans.
There are the Marcoses, still very much in power, trying to solidify their hold on Philippine politics even as they enter what’s widely seen as the lame duck era of a six-year presidential term.
Marcos has been taking his role as chief campaigner seriously. In the months before the 2025 campaign started, the jet-setting President reportedly made it known that he’d minimize trips abroad to only the essentials. It was a decision seen partly as acknowledgement that domestic issues, as well as public sentiment, should take precedence over engagements overseas. After all, inflation has consistently been the most urgent national concern for Filipinos, according to pollster Pulse Asia.
According to its June 2024 survey, the Marcos administration’s net approval rating on how it’s controlling inflation is at -71%. That’s not a good place to be ahead of a midterm election you want your anointed bets to win.
And then there are the Dutertes who are fighting for political survival.
Eldest daughter Sara has been impeached and may face an impeachment trial soon. The old man Duterte is, well, old has the threat of an International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant constantly dangling over his head. That’s not to mention the Duterte+ cohort — allies such as Ronald dela Rosa who, like his former boss, faces the threat of an ICC probe, or even a warrant.
The country is at a crossroads not just over the political squabbling of the two clans, but because of a greater threat: attempts to change changing world order, among the manifestations of which are China’s aggressive actions in the West Philippine Sea.
Efforts to introduce to Congress legislation that would update Commonwealth-era espionage laws and monitor foreign malign influence will be for naught if the administration doesn’t have the numbers in both chambers.
Legislators, not soldiers
The image of Filipino leaders clapping as the China Coast Guard wields its water cannons is a strong one — provided Marcos, as the chief campaigner, is able to sell this to the electorate.
Dela Rosa, reacting to Marcos’ speech, said it was “uncalled for” and “unbecoming” of a President — never mind that the President he served, Rodrigo Duterte, made much worse allegations, including flat out lies, against his political adversaries.
The former police chief told reporters he was willing to “go to war” and put his life on the line over the West Philippine Sea. “Sabihin ninyo, [ako ay] pro-China? Hinahamon ko sila, bigyan ko sila ng baril at bala. Atakihin natin ang mga nambubully sa West Philippine Sea,” he said. (They say I am pro-China? I challenge them — I’ll give them the guns and the bullets. Let’s attack those who are bullying us in the West Philippine Sea.)
But we are not at war, nor do we aspire to be. – Rappler.com